Crypto / Weekly focus
Competing with a bank deposit does not make a token a bank deposit.
An October 13 BIS working paper studies substitution; it does not establish identical protections or personal suitability.
Economic substitution describes behavior. Legal rights, access, and risk still require separate investigation.
Read the new research precisely
A BIS working paper published October 13, 2026, studies whether stablecoins and bank deposits compete for funds. Using weekly U.S. data from January 2019 through June 2025, its authors find evidence of partial substitution: higher deposit rates are followed by slower reserve-backed stablecoin growth. That is an empirical result about aggregate behavior, not a statement that the two products are identical. The paper also cautions that the analysis does not establish that stablecoin growth necessarily reduces aggregate bank deposits or lending. The authors' views are not automatically BIS policy.
Separate the service from the claim
Two products can perform a similar payment or liquidity function while giving their holders different rights. Consider a fictional person choosing where to keep money for a transfer next month. One option is a bank balance; another is a token accessed through an intermediary. Even if both can initiate a payment, the customer must still identify the obligor, withdrawal process, costs, currency conversion, and applicable protections. Calling the choices substitutes describes a possible decision. It does not complete the comparison or turn a token balance into an insured deposit.
Calculate an opportunity cost without predicting behavior
For an invented example, suppose 5,000 dollars could earn a stated simple annual rate of 4% for exactly one year, with no fees or taxes. The arithmetic is 200 dollars. An alternative earning nothing would forgo that amount under these assumptions, but might have different services, access restrictions, or risks. These are teaching figures, not rates observed in the working paper or offers available today. A personal comparison cannot be inferred from aggregate estimates. The price of convenience also depends on actual transfer charges and how long money remains in each arrangement.
Know what the study cannot decide
Create two columns: the research question and the personal questions it leaves unanswered. The first concerns relationships in historical data. The second includes a specific product's documents, protection eligibility, operational route, and purpose. Do not read a statistical association as a recommendation or a guarantee that one balance will move when another rate changes. The practical lesson from this week's publication is to preserve those boundaries. Understanding substitution can improve economic literacy while leaving a particular financial decision unresolved until its own facts are known.
A global perspective
The study uses historical U.S. data. Its findings are not automatic estimates for other countries, individual customers, or future regulatory arrangements.
Sources & further reading
BIS Working Paper 1382 — Are stablecoins and bank deposits substitutes?, October 13, 2026 ↗Sources checked Oct 18, 2026. Examples are original illustrations. No affiliation with cited organizations.
Make the idea stick.
Mark complete when you are ready. Reaching the end alone does not mark a lesson complete.
What assumption in this guide would change the result in a different situation? Revisit the example and explain that change in your own words.
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